Formula One Betting

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Poisson Distribution, coupled with historical data, provides a simple and reliable method for calculating the most likely score in a soccer match which can be applied to betting. This simple walk-through shows how to calculate the necessary Attack/Defence Strength measures along with a handy shortcut to generate the Poisson Distribution values. In no time you'll be predicting soccer scores using the Poisson Distribution.

Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

Poisson Distribution - Calculating score-line probabilities

Before we can use Poisson to calculate the most likely score-line of a match, we need to calculate the average number of goals each team is likely to score in that match. This can be calculated by determining the “Attack Strength” and “Defence Strength” for each team and comparing them.

Once you know how to calculate result probabilities, you can compare your results to a bookmaker’s odds and potentially find value.

Selecting a representative data range is vital when calculating Attack Strength and Defence Strength – too long and the data will not be relevant for the team's current strength, while too short may allow outliers to skew the data. The 38 games played by each team in the 2015/16 EPL season will provide a sufficient sample size to apply the Poisson Distribution.

How to calculate Attack Strength

The first step in calculating Attack Strength based upon last season’s results is to determine the average number of goals scored per team, per home game, and per away game.

Calculate this by taking the total number of goals scored last season and dividing it by the number of games played:

• Season total goals scored at home / number of games (in season)
• Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)

In 2015/16 English Premier League season, there were 567/380 at home and 459/380 away, equalling an average of 1.492 goals per game at home and 1.207 away.

• Average number of goals scored at home: 1.492
• Average number of goals scored away: 1.207

The ratio of a team's average and the league average is what constitutes “Attack Strength”.

How to calculate Defence Strength

We’ll also need the average number of goals an average team concedes. This is simply the inverse of the above numbers (as the number of goals a home team scores will equal the same number that an away team concedes):

• Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.207
• Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.492

The ratio of a team's average and the league average is what constitutes 'Defence Strength'.

We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack Strength and Defence Strength of both Tottenham Hotspur and Everton (as of 1st March 2017).

Predicting Tottenham Hotspur’s goals

Formula One Betting Tips

Calculate Tottenham’s Attack Strength:

1. Step - 1: Take the number of goals scored at home last season by the home team (Tottenham: 35) and divide by the number of home games (35/19): 1.842.
2. Step - 2: Divide this value by the season’s average home goals scored per game (1.842/1.492) to get an “Attack Strength” of 1.235.

Calculate Everton’s Defence Strength:

1. Step - 1: Take the number of goals conceded away from home last season by the away team (Everton: 25) and divide by the number of away games (25/19): 1.315.
2. Step - 2: Divide this by the season’s average goals conceded by an away team per game (1.315/1.492) to get a “Defence Strength” of 0.881.

We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals Tottenham might score (this is done by multiplying Tottenham's Attack Strength by Everton's Defence Strength and the average number of home goals in the Premier League):

1.235 x 0.881 x 1.492 = 1.623

Predicting Everton’s goals

To calculate the number of goals Everton might score, simply use the above formulas but replace the average number of home goals with the average number of away goals.

Everton's Attack Strength:

(24/19) / (459/380) = 1.046

Tottenham's Defence Strength:

Nn1 Betting Formula

(15/19) / (459/380) = 0.653

In the same way we predicted the number of goals Tottenham will score, we can calculate the likely number of goals Everton might score (done by multiplying Everton's Attack Strength by Tottenham's Defence Strength and the average number of away goals in the Premier League):

Poisson Distribution – Predicting multiple outcomes

Of course, no game ends 1.623 vs. 0.824 – this is simply the average. Poisson Distribution, a formula created by French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, allows us to use these figures to distribute 100% of probability across a range of goal outcomes for each side.

Poisson Distribution formula:

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

However, we can use online tools such as a Poisson Distribution Calculator to do most of the equation for us.

All we need to do is enter the different event occurrences - in our case goals outcomes from 0-5 - and the expected occurrences which are the likelihood of each team scoring - in our example Tottenham at 1.623 is their average rate of success, and Everton 0.824; the calculator will output the probability of the score for the given outcome.

Poisson Distribution for Tottenham vs. Everton

This example shows that there is a 19.73% chance that Tottenham will fail to score, but a 32.02% chance they will score a single goal and a 25.99% chance they’ll score two. Everton, on the other hand, is at 43.86% not to score, 36.14% to score one and 14.89% to score two. Hoping for a side to score five? The probability is 1.85% for Tottenham or 0.14% for Everton - or 2% for either team to score 5.

As both scores are independent (mathematically-speaking), you can see that the expected score is 1–0 - pairing the most probable outcomes for each team. If you multiply those two probabilities together, you’ll get the probability of the 1-0 outcome – (0.3202*0.4386) =0.1404 or 14.04%.

Now you know how to calculate score-line probabilities using Poisson Distribution for betting, you can compare your measures to a bookmaker’s odds and see if there are discrepancies to take advantage of, especially if you factor in your own assessment of relevant situational factors such as weather, injury or HFA.

Converting estimated chance into odds

The above example showed us that a 1-1 draw has an 11.53% chance (0.3202*0.3614) of occurring when the Poisson Distribution formula is applied. But what if you wanted to know the predicted odds on the “draw”, rather than on individual draw outcomes? You’d need to calculate the probability for all of the different draw scorelines – 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc.

Once you calculate the chances of each outcome, you convert them into odds and compare them to a bookmaker’s odds in order to find potential value bets.

To do this, simply calculate the probability of all possible draw combinations and add them together. This will give you the chance of a draw occurring, regardless of the score.

Of course, there are actually an infinite number of draw possibilities (both sides could score 10 goals each, for example) but the chances of a draw above 5-5 are so small that it’s safe to disregard them for this model.

Using the Tottenham vs. Everton example, combining all of the draws gives a probability of 0.2472 or 24.72% - this would give true odds of 4.05 (1/0.2472).

The limits of Poisson Distribution

Poisson Distribution is a simple predictive model that doesn’t allow for numerous factors. Situational factors – such as club circumstances, game status etc. – and subjective evaluation of the change of each team during the transfer window are completely ignored.

In this case, the above Poisson formula calculation fails to quantify any effect Everton's new manager (Ronald Koeman) might have had on the team. It also fails to take Tottenham's potential fatigue into consideration now that they are playing close to a Europa League fixture.

Correlations are also ignored; such as the widely recognised pitch effect that shows certain matches have a tendency to be either high or low scoring.

These are particularly important areas in lower league games, which can give bettors an edge against bookmakers. It is harder to gain an edge in major leagues such as the Premier League given the expertise and resources that modern bookmakers have at their disposal.
Last, but not least, these odds do not factor in the margin a bookmaker charges which are hugely important to the whole process of finding value.

Want to apply the Poisson Distribution to soccer betting? Get the best Premier League odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

What Is Formula 1?

Formula One, also popularly known as F1, is the biggest international single-seater auto racing affiliated by the Federation Internationale de L’Automobile (FIA). F1 is owned by Liberty Media, which is a well-reckoned American mass media company, through its subsidiary, the Formula One Group.

Rules that F1 Racers have to follow:

• Defending in F1 races is somewhat similar to any open-wheel series. Racers are not allowed to block drivers aggressively that are attempting to pass.
• Every car needs to qualify in 107% fastest driver’s lap time. In case the car fails to qualify in the first stage and drops out, they can continue to take part in the practice session.
• The racer who runs the fastest lap gets an extra point.
• Drivers are only allowed to change three-engines each year. If this number increases, their place drops ten places.
• Drivers are not allowed to speed in the F1 pitlane.

Best Online F1 Betting Sites

When it comes to F1 betting, the importance of choosing a legal F1 sports betting platform cannot be overlooked. A reliable sportsbook brings you a suite of services that makes betting more engaging. A good site will also provide a mobile F1 betting app that facilitates gambling on the go. Below are the best real money football betting sites:

States That Allow F1 Betting in America

Following are the states within the U.S. where you can find real money betting sites:

● Indiana
● Arkansas
● Illinois
● Delaware
● Colorado
● Indiana
● Iowa
● Mississippi
● Michigan
● Nevada
● Montana
● New Jersey
● New Hampshire
● New York
● Oregon,
● New Mexico
● Rhode Island
● Pennsylvania
● Washington, D.C.
● West Virginia

Types of Bets Available in Top Formula 1 Betting Sites

F1 betting offers versatile betting markets for you to win substantial rewards:

To-Win Bets

It is the type of wagering where you place the money on a specific driver to win the race. Select the driver which you think will win, put a to-win bet, and if that racer finishes the race in the first place, you will get the rewards.

Driver Matchups

When you place a bet on individual F1 races, driver matchups are among the most existing wagering options. You will see this type of bet in a retail sportsbook, but the options are limited. In these types of wagers, you select between the two drivers who you think will complete the race with higher points.

Prop Bets

These are also known as proposition bets. In this, you wager on whether or not something that is proposed will happen. These types of bets need skills to make the correct prediction.

Future Bets

Wager on F1 futures markets allows you to bet on events that will happen in the distant future. In this, you can bet on the driver who will win the race series, who will win the highest score, or who will be disqualified first.

Types Of Bonuses To Get With F1 Betting

Betting on F1 online with a good platform will allow you to acquire different types of bonuses, including:

● Deposit Bonus: You get this bonus on the first deposit. It is either in the form of a risk-free bet or percentage match of the deposit up to a particular sum.

● No Deposit Bonus: When you first sign up on a website, you get a free sign up bonus. This is a small amount that allows you to place your first bet without any risk.

● Cashback: In this type of bet, the platform secures your wager up to a particular amount. If you end up losing your bet, the F1 betting apps or websites will pay you back up to a particular limit.

Odds for Formula 1 Championship

Irrespective of the sports leagues, identifying and understanding the odds of a sport is imperative for successful betting. Odds are made distinctively by oddsmakers to determine the winning chances of the players at a particular event. Following are the odds for the Portuguese Grand Prix, which is back on the F1 schedule for the first time since 1996:

Important F1 Betting Tips

When it comes to placing bets on events, you have to be informed and strategic. Following are some useful tips that will help you in establishing the right F1 betting strategy:

Move Your Focus Away From Steep Favorites

At the time, you will come across a situation like in Grand Prix Singapore wherein the line-up looked like this –

Sebastian Vettel: 5/6
Lewis Hamilton: 7/2
Fernando Alonso: 9/2
Jenson Button: 15/2
Mark Webber: 15/2

Rest of the racers either 50/1 or above the mark where most of the players were between 100/1 and 5000/1. So when betting, avoid both steep favorites and underdogs. The racers who are at 3rd, 4th, or 5th favorite are the ones with the most value.

Pay Close Attention to Head-to-Head Races

Podium finish does not bring good odds; the top 6 is not available for lower-tiered drivers. If you want to experience effective F1 betting, then you should focus on the head to head position. This place also has the lowest juice, so you will be gaining more profit as opposed to other forms of betting.

Assess The Odds At Multiple Sites

Irrespective of the type of bet you choose, look for the odds at the different sportsbooks. When betting on F1 races, consider the old saying, ‘I know far more winning price shoppers than I do winning handicappers.’

Saudi Arabia Decided To Host F1 Race in 2021

In the latest announcement, Saudi Arabia has revealed its decision to host F1 in 2021. The officials are preparing to organize 23 races over the course of next year. Prince Khalid Bin Sultan Al Faisal, who is the president of the Saudi Automobile and Motorcycle Federation, revealed his fondness for Formula 1. He also said that people of the country are also big fans of F1 racings. The Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia is said to be a street race that will be held during the evening under lights. The advanced infrastructure allows the races to be conducted in Jeddah, which is also a picturesque location.

In an interview, the Prince said that considering that it is a street race, the team wanted to make sure that they are ready for it. Khalid added that earlier, the plan was to host the race in 2023 in Al Qiddiyah 2023 seemed too long for everyone to wait. While there were many locations under assessment, the team finally finalized the Jeddah located along the Red Sea.

Final Thoughts

F1 is an adrenaline-pumping sport that attracts sports fans from all across the world. But along with sports enthusiasts, bettors also have tremendous opportunities to win a lot of rewards. When understanding how to bet on F1, you have to be aware of the events as much as possible. Lastly, ensure that you choose a licensed and regulated website, which offers the right services to make your opportunities safe, convenient, and lucrative.