Money Line Explained
- The easiest way to understand moneyline wagers is by using a $100 bet. Using the above example, the moneyline on the underdog Buccaneers was +136. At +136 odds, a $100.
- Betting Odds Converter & Moneyline Calculator. Insert your odds below and the tool will automatically convert them to American, Decimal, and Fractional odds.
- The money line is actually the most straightforward bet you can have on any sport. Whilst the spread bet is on a team to win and by how many, the money line is a bet on.
- Money Line Bets Explained Money lines (also called American Odds) are one of the most common ways to bet on sports. They do not use a point spread, and are straight-up bets on who will win the game or event. To properly explain how to bet the money line, the first thing to understand is the difference between a negative and positive money line.
Fixed-odds betting is a form of wagering against odds offered by a bookmaker or an individual or on a bet exchange. It involves betting on an event in which there is no fluctuation on the payout. In Australia, the practice is usually known as 'SP betting'.
Calculating fixed odds[edit]
NFL Moneylines Explained NFL Money Line betting is the simplest and a popular form of betting. With NFL money line betting you are simply picking which team will outright win the game. The moneyline odds will list the the favorite in a given game as a negative number (ie.200) that means you will have to bet that amount to win $100.
It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager (the 'live price'), but the category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts (the 'starting prices'). It is ideal for bookmakers to price/mark up a book such that the net outcome will always be in their favour: the sum of the probabilities quoted for all possible outcomes will be in excess of 100%. The excess over 100% (or overround) represents profit to the bookmaker in the event of a balanced/even book. In the more usual case of an imbalanced book, the bookmaker may have to pay out more winnings than what is staked or may earn more than mathematically expected. An imbalanced book may arise since there is no way for a bookmaker to know the true probabilities for the outcome of competitions left to human effort or to predict the bets that will be attracted from others by fixed odds compiled on the basis personal view and knowledge.
With the advent of Internet and bet exchange betting, the possibility of fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books against bookmakers and exchanges has expanded significantly. Betting exchanges in particular act like a stock exchange, allowing the odds to be set in the course of trading between individual bettors, usually leading to quoted odds that are reasonably close to the 'true odds.'
'The best of it'[edit]
In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting 'the best of it'. For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting 'the best of it' and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the like). However, if someone offered odds of 10 to 1 that a card chosen at random from a regular 52 card deck would be the ace of spades, one would be getting 'the worst of it' because the chance is only 1 in 52 that the ace will be chosen.
In an entry for L'Encyclopédie (the Enlightenment-era 'French Encyclopedia'), Denis Diderot cites a similar example in which two players, Player A and Player B, wager over a game of dice that involves rolling two six-sided dice. Player A wins if the dice add up to 12, of which there is only one possible case. Player B wins if the dice fall in any other combination, of which there are 35 possibilities.[1] It is mathematically disadvantageous to make a bet if one gets'the worst of it.' Accordingly, for the bet to be 'fair,' the amount each player could potentially lose or gain from the wager should be adjusted, depending on the odds of their success.
Laying odds[edit]
When making a bet in which one must put more at risk than one can win, one is laying the odds. Rational bettors will do so only if the actual chances of an adverse outcome are low enough that the expected outcome even after deduction of taxes and any transaction costs is favorable to the person placing the bet. For example, if one bets $1,000 that it will rain tomorrow and can win only $200 but can lose the entire $1,000, one is laying odds that will rain tomorrow. Laying odds is reflected in the colloquial expression '[I would] dollars to doughnuts' — with which the speaker is expressing a willingness to risk losing something of value in exchange for something worthless, because winning that bet is a certainty.[2]
Lay betting[edit]
'Lay betting' is a bet that something will not happen, so 'laying $50 on a horse' is betting the horse will not win. Bookmakers sell bets based on the odds of a specific outcome, but lay betting allows the bettor (in some English-speaking countries, the 'punter') to reverse roles with the bookmaker, using odds to sell the opposite outcome to the bookmaker. In this context, 'lay' is used in the sense of 'layman', i.e., a bet sold by someone who does not sell bets professionally.
What Is The Money Line
Types of odds offered[edit]
There are three widely used means of quoting odds:
Fractional odds[edit]
Favoured by bookmakers in the United Kingdom and Ireland and common in horse racing, fractional odds quote the net total that will be paid out to the winning bettor relative to the stake. The term 'fractional odds' is something of a misnomer, especially when visually reinforced by using a slash (as opposed to, e.g., a colon or the word 'to' or 'on') to separate a potential gain from the amount that a bettor must wager in order to receive it upon a win, because the 'fraction' in question represents not the odds of winning or even the reciprocal of the odds of winning but rather the fraction (for any odds longer than 'even money' or chances of winning less than 50%, an improper fraction) of the amount at stake that the upside outcome represents. This fraction may be derived by subtracting 1 from the reciprocal of the chances of winning; for any odds longer than 'even money,' this fraction will be an improper one.[3][4] Odds of 4:1 ('four-to-one' or less commonly 'four-to-one against') would imply that the bettor stands to make a £400 profit on a £100 stake. If the odds are 1:4 (read 'one-to-four', or alternatively 'four-to-one on' or 'four-to-one in favor'), the bettor stands to make £25 on a £100 stake. In either case, against or on, should he win, the bettor always receives his original stake back, so if the odds are 4:1 the bettor receives a total of £500 (£400 plus the original £100). Odds of 1/1 are known as evens or even money.
Not all fractional odds are traditionally read using the lowest common denominator. Perhaps most unusual is that odds of 10:3 are read as 'one-hundred-to-thirty'.
Fractional odds are also known as British odds,UK odds,[5] or, in that country, traditional odds.
Decimal odds[edit]
Favoured in Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, decimal odds differ from fractional odds by taking into account that the bettor must first part with their stake to make a bet; the figure quoted, therefore, is the winning amount that would be paid out to the bettor.[4][6] Therefore, the decimal odds of an outcome are equivalent to one plus the decimal value of the fractional odds; in the absence of built-in house advantage to cover overhead, profit margins, or (for an illegal enterprise) compensation for the fact that both chances of prosecution and penalties in the event of conviction tend to be higher for bookmakers than for clients, the decimal odds associated with a given outcome would be the decimal expression of the reciprocal of what the offering party assesses to be the outcome's chance of occurring.[7] Thus, even odds 1/1 are quoted in decimal odds as 2. The 4/1 fractional odds discussed above are quoted as 5, while the 1/4 odds are quoted as 1.25. It is considered to be ideal for parlay betting because the odds to be paid out are simply the product of the odds for each outcome wagered on.
Decimal odds are also known as European odds, digital odds or continental odds and tend to be favoured by betting exchanges because they are the easiest to work with for trading, in this case the purchase and sale of upside and downside risk.[5]
Moneyline odds[edit]
Moneyline odds are favoured by United States bookmakers and as such are sometimes called American Odds.[4] There are two possibilities: the figure quote can be either positive or negative. Moneyline refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread.
- Positive figures
- If the figure quoted is positive, the odds are quoting how much money will be won on a $100 wager (done if the odds are better than even). Fractional odds of 4/1 would be quoted as +400 while fractional odds of 1/4 cannot be quoted as a positive figure.
- Negative figures
- If the figure quoted is negative, the moneyline odds are quoting how much money must be wagered to win $100 (this is done if the odds are worse than even). Fractional odds of 1/4 would be quoted as −400 while fractional odds of 4/1 cannot be quoted as a negative figure.
- Even odds
- Even odds are quoted as +100 or −100. Some but not all bookmakers display the positive symbol.
Odds conversion[edit]
To convert fractional odds to decimal, take the fractional number, convert it to decimal by doing the division, and then add 1. For example, the 4-to-1 fractional odds shown above is the same as 5 in decimal odds, while 1-to-4 would be quoted as 1.25.
The method for converting moneyline to decimal odds depends on whether the moneyline value is positive or negative. If the moneyline is positive, it is divided by 100 and add 1. Thus, +400 moneyline is the same as 5.0 in decimal odds. If the moneyline is negative, 100 is divided by the absolute moneyline amount (the minus signed is removed), and then 1 is added. For example, −400 moneyline is 100/400 + 1, or 1.25, in decimal odds.
| Decimal | Fractional | Moneyline | Win% (to break even) | Return (minus stake) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 1/100 | −10,000 | 99.01% | 1.00% |
| 1.11 | 1/9 | −900 | 90.00% | 11.11% |
| 1.33 | 1/3 | −300 | 75.00% | 33.33% |
| 1.50 | 1/2 | −200 | 66.67% | 50.00% |
| 2.00 | 1/1 | ±100 | 50.00% | 100.00% |
| 3.00 | 2/1 | +200 | 33.33% | 200.00% |
| 4.00 | 3/1 | +300 | 25.00% | 300.00% |
| 10.00 | 9/1 | +900 | 10.00% | 900.00% |
| 101.00 | 100/1 | +10,000 | 0.99% | 10,000.00% |
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^'Wager'. University of Michigan Library. Retrieved 1 April 2015.
- ^Listening to America, Stuart Berg Flexner (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1982).
- ^'Betting School: Understanding Fractional & Decimal Betting Odds'. Goal. 10 January 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2014.
- ^ abcCortis, Dominic (2015). Expected Values and variance in bookmaker payouts: A Theoretical Approach towards setting limits on odds. Journal of Prediction Markets. 1. 9.
- ^ ab'Betting Odds Format'. World Bet Exchange. Archived from the original on May 2, 2014. Retrieved 27 March 2014.
- ^D., Chris. 'What is Fixed odds betting and Due Column betting?'. TBR. Retrieved 27 March 2014.
- ^'Fractional Odds'. betstarter.com/. Archived from the original on April 2, 2014. Retrieved 27 March 2014.
External links[edit]
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When you think about sports betting, the first wager type that comes to mind is probably the moneyline. The moneyline bet is a straight-up wager on who wins a game, fight, or any other matchup.
The term ‘moneyline’ might sound like a sort of foreign language. That’s okay! We were all rookie bettors who had to ask questions at some point.
We’ll break down moneyline bets and walk you through everything you need to know about them.
The Moneyline Made Easy
You’ve already learned how to read and interpret the three types of odds you’ll encounter, so let’s move onto the elements of sporting events you can bet on.
When making a moneyline bet, you’re simply selecting the outright winner of a single game.
When making a fundamental moneyline bet, you’re simply selecting the outright winner of a single game. This is the most straightforward bet you can make. There are no other contingencies.
Here’s an example of the moneyline bet in action:
To place your bet, all you need to do is click on the moneyline number attached to the team you believe is going to win the game. If you think Anaheim will win, click on the +135. If you like Nashville, click on the -135.
From here, your pick will be added to a bet slip where you be asked to enter the amount you wish to risk on your moneyline wager. So, how can you tell how to calculate your payout on the moneyline?
Breaking Down the Moneyline
The numbers next to each team on the moneyline are American odds which:
- indicate each team’s implied probability
- determine how much money you would win, based on your wager.
The team that has a “+” sign on next to their odds is the underdog, while the team with “-” next to their odds number is seen by your sportsbook as the favorite.
In some cases, both teams will have “-” signs next to them. In this case, the team with the number farther from zero should be regarded as the favorite (eg. -120 would be the favorite over -105).
Because the bet will be harder to win, you will always receive a higher payout when you bet the underdog on the moneyline. Of course, the risk of losing such a bet is also substantially higher.
Winning Moneyline Bets
At this stage, you might be wondering how you can win moneyline bets. Let’s revisit the Anaheim (+135) vs. Nashville (-135) moneyline example.
If you bet $100 on Anaheim at +135 moneyline odds and they win the game, you win $135 for a total payout of $235. On the flip side, you need to successfully wager $135 on Nashville to win $100 for a potential payout of $235.
When it comes to moneyline betting, the lines with a plus symbol tell you the amount of money you’d win on a $100 wager, while odds with the minus sign indicate the amount you need to bet to win $100.
Moneyline wagering is a relatively easy concept to understand once you get the hang of it.
Popular Sports with Moneyline Odds
You can find moneyline line odds for virtually any sport, including some of the following leagues:
- NFL
- NBA
- MLB
- NHL
- UFC
Moneyline odds will look similar across the board. The positive number indicates the betting favorite, and the negative number is assigned to the underdog.
Handicapping your Bet
Handicapping is an important part of strategizing your moneyline bets. If you see moneyline odds for a team, and you believe they have a good chance of winning, then you’re already familiar with the concept of handicapping.
Using analytical research, key betting trends, or any other knowledge that might eliminate any guessing in a bet is called handicapping. Handicapping assigns an advantage to a team based on available evidence and statistics rather than a gut instinct.
Beating the oddsmakers is a tough task, but the more research and handicapping you do on betting lines, the better chance you have at padding your bankroll.
Opening/Closing Odds and Line Movement
Online sportsbooks will adjust their moneyline odds as one side gets more of the action from the betting public. This changes the value of your potential return, so it’s important to pay attention to line movement and the opening/closing odds.
Let’s use the Super Bowl as an example. A team like the Kansas City Chiefs could start as -125 favorites, but as more people bet on them leading up to the Super Bowl, the odds might move to -150 or more. This could have a big impact on your winnings, which is why it’s important to find early betting lines that have better value for NFL games.
Experienced sports bettors track the odds very closely, and watching the moneyline is an effective way to gauge what the oddsmakers are thinking. If you find a team you’re confident in, and the oddsmakers are moving the lines the other way, then you’ll have the edge over the sportsbook if your team wins.
Why Are There Fractions or Decimals on the Moneyline?
This depends on the audience your sportsbook targets. The + and – signs you see are referred to as “American” odds. As such, American-facing books will almost always represent the moneyline in this format.
Sportsbooks outside of North America sometimes display the moneyline in either a decimal or fractional format. Even so, the moneyline always refers to betting on the winner of the game, regardless of odds format.
If you need a refresher on calculating all types of odds, be sure to check out our guide. This skill is essential to understanding the moneyline and giving you a return on wagers!
Why Is There No Moneyline for My Game?
Sportsbooks don’t always offer a moneyline option for a game. Sometimes, they will simply offer totals and spread bets.
For example, many sportsbooks only offer an option to bet on the NFL moneyline if the spread is between 3 and 10 points. If one team is a heavy favorite (and the spread is listed at 14 points or more), many sportsbooks will choose to offer only spread and totals bets. This is an industry-standard, in most cases. However, there are exceptions to this rule at select online sports betting sites.
Other Factors to Consider
How To Read A Money Line
Here’s a few other things to keep in mind when you’re looking at moneyline odds at online betting sites:
- Shop for the best lines – moneyline odds aren’t the same at every sportsbook
- Point spread betting – look at other options like betting the point spread if you’re on the fence about a moneyline wager
- Watch the vig – sportsbooks include a fee right in the betting lines, and bookmakers create odds that attract wagers on both sides
Get Closer to the Action
Sports betting is the best way to get more involved with your favorite games, and we have all the knowledge you need to wager with confidence. Check out Betting 101 for more guides that can help you drill the fundamentals.